Deportivo Garcilaso 2-3 Sporting Cristal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 16 Apr 2024

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 42%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +12%
1.27/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.13
-51% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
26.0 Crosses 19.0
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Sporting Cristal
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
1.23 xG 1.54
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
250 Passes 262
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
13.03.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 4-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
2-3
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.64 xG 2.16
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
290 Passes 194
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Cristal nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Sporting Cristal found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 57% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 43%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 1.64 to 2.16.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 3.50 for Sporting Cristal.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal?

Deportivo Garcilaso 2-3 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 36%, draw 27%, Sporting Cristal 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Cristal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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