Ceara 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Apr 2025

Ceara
2-1 HT 1-0
Vasco da Gama
📅16/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Ceara vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.59
Over
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.51
2-3
39%
1.82
4-5
18%
5.0
6+
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.23
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
17%
4.76
X/2
14%
6.61
X/X
11%
3.93
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
9%
5.33
2/X
7%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.2pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceara v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +26%
1.38/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.36
-19% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +54%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
315 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 82%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
22.9 Crosses 19.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Ceara vs Vasco da Gama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.38 xG 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
339 Passes 342
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.12.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-4 HT 0-2 Ceara Ceara BR1
21.08.2020 Ceara Ceara 0-3 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
26.10.2019 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
14.06.2019 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
02.12.2018 Ceara Ceara 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
21.08.2018 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1

Ceara 2-1 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
2-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.01 xG 0.96
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
268 Passes 547
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara edged past Vasco da Gama 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ceara had 36% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 64%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 2.01 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ceara and 1.17 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Vasco da Gama?

Ceara 2-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ceara 46%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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