Super Nova 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 16 May 2025

📅16/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
33%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-10.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
33%
Away Win
23%
+9.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 26%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.18/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.24
-45% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
346 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
27.0 Crosses 19.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Super Nova
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.55 xG 1.37
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
237 Passes 271
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
31.03.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-2 HT 2-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
17.09.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-0 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
30.06.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-5 HT 1-3 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
27.05.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-2 HT 2-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
19.03.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
08.10.2022 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Super Nova
1-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.08 xG 1.11
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
312 Passes 270
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Super Nova and FK Tukums 2000 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Super Nova at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Super Nova had 53% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 47%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.08 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Tukums 2000 led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Super Nova and 2.17 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000?

Super Nova 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 42%, draw 25%, FK Tukums 2000 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Super Nova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Super Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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