Karlbergs BK 1-3 Jarfalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
+0.1pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.0pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.6pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karlbergs BK EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Jarfalla EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.47/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/2.01
+25% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karlbergs BK
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Jarfalla
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Jarfalla Jarfalla 1-1 HT 0-0 Karlbergs BK Karlbergs BK İSÇ4
18.05.2023 Karlbergs BK Karlbergs BK 0-1 HT 0-1 Jarfalla Jarfalla İSÇ4
17.10.2021 Jarfalla Jarfalla 1-3 HT 0-1 Karlbergs BK Karlbergs BK İSÇ4
14.08.2021 Karlbergs BK Karlbergs BK 6-1 HT 4-1 Jarfalla Jarfalla İSÇ4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karlbergs BK
1-3
AWAY Jarfalla
70% Ball Possession 30%
26 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Karlbergs BK vs Jarfalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jarfalla beat Karlbergs BK 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Karlbergs BK at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Karlbergs BK had 70% of the ball to Jarfalla's 30%, shots finished 26-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Karlbergs BK had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Karlbergs BK and 1.00 for Jarfalla.

What was the final score of Karlbergs BK vs Jarfalla?

Karlbergs BK 1-3 Jarfalla in the Sweden - 1st Division on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karlbergs BK vs Jarfalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karlbergs BK win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Karlbergs BK 57%, draw 19%, Jarfalla 24%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Karlbergs BK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karlbergs BK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İSÇ3 More Sweden - 1st Division
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