Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-0 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.92
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.99
6+ Goals
8%
18.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-8.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / -38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Smorgon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
22.06.2021 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-1 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLRK
18.07.2020 Smorgon Smorgon 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
2-0
AWAY Smorgon
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk beat Smorgon 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had 62% of the ball to Smorgon's 38%, shots finished 18-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk and 1.00 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Smorgon?

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-0 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 39%, draw 29%, Smorgon 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BLR More Belarus - Premier League
16 Jun 2024
18:00 Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk Analysis →
20:00 Slavia Mozyr vs FC Minsk Analysis →