Ekvador 2-1 Honduras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 16 Jun 2024

Ekvador
2-1 HT 1-1
Honduras
📅16/06/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

Ekvador vs Honduras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.33
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.41
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
3.48
6+ Goals
12%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 33% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-14.0pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.2pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.5pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ekvador v Honduras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvador EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Honduras EU Bookmakers 14%
+12% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.57/0.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.26/2.82
+3% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / +0%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
449 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 4.1
17.6 Crosses 5.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Ekvador vs Honduras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekvador
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Honduras
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
345 Passes 280
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
The Meetings
27.03.2019 Ekvador Ekvador 0-0 HT 0-0 Honduras Honduras HAZ
09.09.2015 Ekvador Ekvador 2-0 HT 2-0 Honduras Honduras HAZ
21.06.2014 Honduras Honduras 1-2 HT 1-1 Ekvador Ekvador DK
20.11.2013 Ekvador Ekvador 2-2 HT 1-0 Honduras Honduras HAZ
01.03.2012 Ekvador Ekvador 2-0 HT 1-0 Honduras Honduras HAZ
10.02.2011 Honduras Honduras 1-1 HT 1-1 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ

Ekvador 2-1 Honduras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvador
2-1
AWAY Honduras
1.17 xG 1.09
71% Ball Possession 29%
14 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
554 Passes 196
91% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ekvador vs Honduras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ekvador edged past Honduras 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ekvador as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ekvador had 71% of the ball to Honduras's 29%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.17 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ekvador had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ekvador and 0.67 for Honduras.

What was the final score of Ekvador vs Honduras?

Ekvador 2-1 Honduras in the Friendlies on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvador vs Honduras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ekvador win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Ekvador 56%, draw 25%, Honduras 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ekvador) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ekvador) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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