Sofapaka 0-1 Gor Mahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
20%
3.28
Away
49%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.6
Over 2.5
49%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.96
No
63%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
4%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
14%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.5pp
20%
Draw
27%
-7.3pp
49%
Away Win
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.6pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 45%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
0.80/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
+17% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +111% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
281 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sofapaka
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Gor Mahia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
09.03.2022 Sofapaka Sofapaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN2
30.10.2021 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sofapaka
0-1
AWAY Gor Mahia
40% Ball Possession 60%
3 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gor Mahia edged past Sofapaka 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gor Mahia as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sofapaka had 40% of the ball to Gor Mahia's 60%, shots finished 3-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gor Mahia led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sofapaka and 1.00 for Gor Mahia.

What was the final score of Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia?

Sofapaka 0-1 Gor Mahia in the Kenya - Premier League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sofapaka 32%, draw 20%, Gor Mahia 49%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gor Mahia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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