Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Sporting Charleroi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 16 Aug 2024

Union Saint-Gilloise
1-0 HT 0-0
Sporting Charleroi
📅16/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.46
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 27% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.43
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
12%
4.15
X/2
12%
8.12
X/X
9%
5.06
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
9%
6.13
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Sporting Charleroi — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.98/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.58
+5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.0 Crosses 13.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.62 xG 0.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
325 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-3 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
01.10.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 HT 3-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
28.01.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
29.07.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
19.02.2022 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-3 HT 0-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
06.11.2021 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 3-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Sporting Charleroi — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
1-0
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
1.82 xG 0.16
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
253 Passes 291
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 11
11 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise nicked a narrow win over Sporting Charleroi 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 46% of the ball to Sporting Charleroi's 54%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.82 to 0.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.33 for Sporting Charleroi.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi?

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Sporting Charleroi in the Belgium - Pro League on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 46%, draw 26%, Sporting Charleroi 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Under 2.5
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