Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
65%
1.18
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
2.43
Over
48%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.27
No
62%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
26%
5.16
2-3
40%
1.96
4-5
23%
2.73
6+
11%
6.97
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.16 — our 26% vs market 14.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
28%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Dinamo Zagreb win — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
80%
-14.1pp
20%
Draw
14%
+5.9pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+8.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.6pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.78/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.74
+8% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +5%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
456 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 73%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
21.9 Crosses 11.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sibenik
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.23 xG 0.63
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
598 Passes 182
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.05.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
05.04.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 2-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIRK
11.03.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 2-1 HT 2-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
06.11.2022 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 HT 2-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
28.08.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 1-2 HT 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
15.05.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
3-0
AWAY Sibenik
1.80 xG 0.90
71% Ball Possession 29%
17 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 0
625 Passes 223
92% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb ran out comfortable winners over Sibenik 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 71% of the ball to Sibenik's 29%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.80 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.83 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs Sibenik?

Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 65%, draw 20%, Sibenik 14%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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