Neftçi PFK 1-1 Shamakhi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
30%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+1.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
20%
Away Win
21%
-0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.79/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.30
+14% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Shamakhi
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
07.04.2025 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
31.01.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
08.11.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 2-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
31.08.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
12.03.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
23.12.2022 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK and Shamakhi shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi PFK at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Neftçi PFK and 0.33 for Shamakhi.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi?

Neftçi PFK 1-1 Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 54%, draw 26%, Shamakhi 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Neftçi PFK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
16 Aug 2025
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