Birmingham 3-1 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 16 Sep 2024

📅16/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
2.03
Over
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.88
2-3
40%
1.83
4-5
24%
3.17
6+
11%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.88 — our 25% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.34
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.26
X/2
9%
8.62
X/X
9%
5.23
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
15%
6.24
2/X
8%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
52%
-9.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
31%
Away Win
23%
+7.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham The Market 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +27%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
301 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
Crosses 16.5
Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
3-1
AWAY Wrexham
1.31 xG 0.24
68% Ball Possession 32%
8 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
592 Passes 239
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 8
29 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham got the better of Wrexham 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Birmingham had 68% of the ball to Wrexham's 32%, shots finished 8-5, expected goals 1.31 to 0.24.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Wrexham?

Birmingham 3-1 Wrexham in the England - 1st Division on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 43%, draw 26%, Wrexham 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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