Almeria 2-5 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 16 Sep 2024

Almeria
2-5 HT 0-1
CD Castellon
📅16/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Almeria vs CD Castellon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.4
2-3 Goals
35%
1.89
4-5 Goals
28%
2.94
6+ Goals
11%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
11%
4.54
X/2
11%
7.79
X/X
11%
5.53
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
14%
5.29
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.5pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almeria v CD Castellon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.74/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.23
+13% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +43%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
17.1 Crosses 18.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.4

Almeria vs CD Castellon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.35 xG 0.79
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
474 Passes 259
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.01.2021 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
28.10.2020 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-2 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
24.02.2007 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
24.09.2006 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
17.06.2006 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
22.01.2006 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2

Almeria 2-5 CD Castellon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-5
AWAY CD Castellon
2.10 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
20 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
279 Passes 298
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Almeria vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon swept aside Almeria 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Almeria had 48% of the ball to CD Castellon's 52%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.10 to 1.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Almeria.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Almeria and 1.17 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Almeria vs CD Castellon?

Almeria 2-5 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Almeria 44%, draw 24%, CD Castellon 32%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Almeria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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