Hoffenheim (K) 2-3 Freiburg (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Women's Bundesliga, 16 Sep 2024

Hoffenheim (K)
2-3 HT 1-1
Freiburg (K)
📅16/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Women's Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hoffenheim (K) vs Freiburg (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.63
Over 2.5
57%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
65%
-5.0pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.8pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
34%
+8.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
66%
-8.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim (K) v Freiburg (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim (K) EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg (K) EU Bookmakers 19%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +66% / +66%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/2.00
-66% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +40%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
15.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –

Hoffenheim (K) vs Freiburg (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim (K)
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Freiburg (K)
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
2.43 xG 2.12
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
317 Passes 378
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.03.2024 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) 2-4 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim (K) Hoffenheim (K) ALKB
04.11.2023 Hoffenheim (K) Hoffenheim (K) 2-3 HT 0-1 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) ALKB

Hoffenheim (K) 2-3 Freiburg (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim (K)
2-3
AWAY Freiburg (K)
1.92 xG 2.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 7
14 Corners 4
334 Passes 306
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 8
34 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim (K) vs Freiburg (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg (K) edged past Hoffenheim (K) 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Hoffenheim (K) carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hoffenheim (K) had 52% of the ball to Freiburg (K)'s 48%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.92 to 2.11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Hoffenheim (K) and 2.50 for Freiburg (K).

What was the final score of Hoffenheim (K) vs Freiburg (K)?

Hoffenheim (K) 2-3 Freiburg (K) in the Germany - Women's Bundesliga on 16/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim (K) vs Freiburg (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim (K) 60%, draw 21%, Freiburg (K) 19%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Hoffenheim (K)), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hoffenheim (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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