ATK Mohun Bagan 0-1 Ahal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCŞL2, 16 Sep 2025

ATK Mohun Bagan
0-1 HT 0-0
Ahal
📅16/09/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
AFCŞL2 – 2025/2026

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Ahal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.87
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ATK Mohun Bagan v Ahal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ahal EU Bookmakers 26%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +65% / +65%
1.59/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+6% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +54%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
26.7 Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH ATK Mohun Bagan vs Ahal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ahal edged past ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was ATK Mohun Bagan at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of ATK Mohun Bagan vs Ahal?

ATK Mohun Bagan 0-1 Ahal in the AFCŞL2 on 16/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Ahal?

Before kick-off our model rated a ATK Mohun Bagan win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split ATK Mohun Bagan 47%, draw 24%, Ahal 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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