Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 Arbroath — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 17 Feb 2024

Dunfermline Athletic
1-1 HT 1-0
Arbroath
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2023/2024

Dunfermline Athletic vs Arbroath Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.53
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.1
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
10%
14.75
X/1
20%
3.88
X/2 EV+ ✗
13%
9.79
X/X
8%
5.17
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
7%
7.59
2/X
7%
15.5
Value flag · X/2 at 9.79 — our 13% vs market 6.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dunfermline Athletic v Arbroath — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunfermline Athletic EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Arbroath EU Bookmakers 25%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.48/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.51
-16% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
398 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.5
– Crosses 13.5
– Yellow Cards 1.5

Dunfermline Athletic vs Arbroath Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunfermline Athletic
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Arbroath
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Arbroath Arbroath 1-1 HT 1-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
28.11.2023 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 3-0 HT 0-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
09.12.2022 Arbroath Arbroath 1-5 HT 0-4 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCK
05.03.2022 Arbroath Arbroath 1-0 HT 1-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
26.12.2021 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 0-3 HT 0-2 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
30.10.2021 Arbroath Arbroath 4-2 HT 2-2 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL

Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 Arbroath — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunfermline Athletic
1-1
AWAY Arbroath
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 7
8 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Dunfermline Athletic vs Arbroath
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunfermline Athletic and Arbroath shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Dunfermline Athletic at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Dunfermline Athletic had 51% of the ball to Arbroath's 49%, shots finished 14-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arbroath led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Dunfermline Athletic and 1.67 for Arbroath.

What was the final score of Dunfermline Athletic vs Arbroath?

Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 Arbroath in the Scotland - Championship on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunfermline Athletic vs Arbroath?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dunfermline Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Dunfermline Athletic 49%, draw 25%, Arbroath 26%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dunfermline Athletic) ✗ BTTS No
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