Ceilandia 1-1 Paranoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Brasiliense, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
43%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
Over Pick
63%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
34%
4-5
32%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
31%
Home Win
25%
+6.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
43%
Away Win
51%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceilandia The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Paranoa The Market 56%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
1.24/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/2.00
-4% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +110% / -48%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceilandia
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Paranoa
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
08.02.2023 Ceilandia Ceilandia 3-0 HT 1-0 Paranoa Paranoa BRBR
19.02.2022 Ceilandia Ceilandia 5-0 HT 3-0 Paranoa Paranoa BRBR
POST-MATCH Ceilandia vs Paranoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceilandia and Paranoa shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Paranoa at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ceilandia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for Ceilandia and 0.00 for Paranoa.

What was the final score of Ceilandia vs Paranoa?

Ceilandia 1-1 Paranoa in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceilandia vs Paranoa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paranoa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ceilandia 31%, draw 26%, Paranoa 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paranoa), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paranoa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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