Desportiva ES 1-1 Nova Venécia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.76
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
No
45%
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
40%
4-5
25%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
52%
-13.5pp
32%
Draw
24%
+7.8pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Desportiva ES The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nova Venécia The Market 27%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.71
-40% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
319 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Desportiva ES
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Nova Venécia
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 5
05.03.2023 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia 2-0 HT 1-0 Desportiva ES Desportiva ES BRCAP
10.04.2022 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia 3-1 Desportiva ES Desportiva ES BRCAP
04.04.2022 Desportiva ES Desportiva ES 0-2 HT 0-1 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia BRCAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Desportiva ES
1-1
AWAY Nova Venécia
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Desportiva ES vs Nova Venécia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Desportiva ES and Nova Venécia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 29% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Desportiva ES had 54% of the ball to Nova Venécia's 46%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Nova Venécia led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Desportiva ES and 2.33 for Nova Venécia.

What was the final score of Desportiva ES vs Nova Venécia?

Desportiva ES 1-1 Nova Venécia in the Brazil - Capixaba on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Desportiva ES vs Nova Venécia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Desportiva ES win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Desportiva ES 39%, draw 32%, Nova Venécia 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Desportiva ES) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Desportiva ES) ✓ BTTS Yes
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