17/02/2024
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
NAPSA Stars vs Kabwe Warriors Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
Over
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
42%
4-5
16%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
42%
Home Win
49%
30%
Draw
24%
28%
Away Win
27%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
NAPSA Stars v Kabwe Warriors — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
NAPSA Stars
The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
Kabwe Warriors
The Market 31%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+15% /
+15%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+29%
/
+20%
51%
Ball Possession
49%
14
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
341 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
308 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
NAPSA Stars vs Kabwe Warriors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
NAPSA Stars squeezed past Kabwe Warriors 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had NAPSA Stars as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of NAPSA Stars vs Kabwe Warriors?
NAPSA Stars 1-0 Kabwe Warriors in the Zambiya - Super League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for NAPSA Stars vs Kabwe Warriors?
Before kick-off our model rated a NAPSA Stars win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NAPSA Stars 42%, draw 30%, Kabwe Warriors 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAPSA Stars), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (NAPSA Stars)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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ZAM
More Zambiya - Super League
17 Feb 2024