Sparta Prag II 1-2 Varnsdorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - FNL, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.97
Over 2.5
41%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
47%
+11.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
53%
-11.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sparta Prag II EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Varnsdorf EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.32/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.24
-18% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sparta Prag II
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Varnsdorf
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
13.08.2023 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 2-2 HT 0-2 Sparta Prag II Sparta Prag II ÇEK2
08.05.2023 Sparta Prag II Sparta Prag II 2-0 HT 1-0 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
16.10.2022 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 2-0 HT 2-0 Sparta Prag II Sparta Prag II ÇEK2
09.03.2022 Sparta Prag II Sparta Prag II 0-3 HT 0-1 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf ÇEK2
08.08.2021 Varnsdorf Varnsdorf 3-1 HT 1-0 Sparta Prag II Sparta Prag II ÇEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sparta Prag II
1-2
AWAY Varnsdorf
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sparta Prag II vs Varnsdorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varnsdorf edged past Sparta Prag II 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sparta Prag II at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sparta Prag II had 52% of the ball to Varnsdorf's 48%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Varnsdorf led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sparta Prag II and 2.00 for Varnsdorf.

What was the final score of Sparta Prag II vs Varnsdorf?

Sparta Prag II 1-2 Varnsdorf in the Czech Republic - FNL on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sparta Prag II vs Varnsdorf?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sparta Prag II win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sparta Prag II 46%, draw 29%, Varnsdorf 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sparta Prag II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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