West Ham United 1-1 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
44%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.71
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.84
6+ Goals
14%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.23
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
9%
12.0
X/1
10%
5.6
X/2
14%
6.32
X/X
12%
5.26
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
24%
3.84
2/X
6%
12.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
40%
-11.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
44%
Away Win
34%
+10.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.6pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.38/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.23
+8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
21.7 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aston Villa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.09
46% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 Passes 412
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.10.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-1 HT 1-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
12.03.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
28.08.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
13.03.2022 West Ham United West Ham United 2-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
31.10.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-4 HT 1-2 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
03.02.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-3 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United
1-1
AWAY Aston Villa
2.02 xG 0.66
31% Ball Possession 69%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 10
204 Passes 562
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH West Ham United vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Ham United and Aston Villa shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, West Ham United had 31% of the ball to Aston Villa's 69%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.02 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, West Ham United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for West Ham United and 1.33 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of West Ham United vs Aston Villa?

West Ham United 1-1 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split West Ham United 29%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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