Rio Branco ES 1-1 Nova Venécia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.05
Draw
18%
3.45
Away
46%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
Over Pick
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
53%
4-5
22%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
25%
X/X
3%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
45%
-8.7pp
18%
Draw
26%
-8.1pp
46%
Away Win
30%
+16.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Branco ES The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Nova Venécia The Market 33%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.01/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.60
-35% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Branco ES
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Nova Venécia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.03.2023 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia 3-0 HT 2-0 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES BRCAP
18.03.2023 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 2-2 HT 0-0 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia BRCAP
11.02.2023 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 2-1 HT 1-0 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia BRCAP
26.03.2022 Nova Venécia Nova Venécia 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES BRCAP
POST-MATCH Rio Branco ES vs Nova Venécia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Branco ES and Nova Venécia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nova Venécia at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Nova Venécia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rio Branco ES and 1.75 for Nova Venécia.

What was the final score of Rio Branco ES vs Nova Venécia?

Rio Branco ES 1-1 Nova Venécia in the Brazil - Capixaba on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Branco ES vs Nova Venécia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nova Venécia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Rio Branco ES 36%, draw 18%, Nova Venécia 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nova Venécia), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nova Venécia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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