MVV Maastricht 0-3 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Mar 2024

MVV Maastricht
0-3 HT 0-1
Roda
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

MVV Maastricht vs Roda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
36%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.59
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.9
2-3 Goals
38%
2.06
4-5 Goals
27%
2.59
6+ Goals
12%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.66
1/2
7%
19.75
1/X
10%
13.65
X/1
12%
9.0
X/2
10%
4.55
X/X
8%
6.35
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.23
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.66 — our 20% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
25%
+14.2pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
36%
Away Win
53%
-16.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.6pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MVV Maastricht v Roda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 57%
+1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -28%
1.29/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.12
-2% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 80%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
15.8 Crosses 20.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.3

MVV Maastricht vs Roda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Roda
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.73 xG 1.30
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
224 Passes 462
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
05.02.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
04.09.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
07.01.2022 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
29.11.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
12.04.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-4 HT 2-3 Roda Roda HOL2

MVV Maastricht 0-3 Roda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
0-3
AWAY Roda
0.93 xG 1.20
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
387 Passes 275
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda swept aside MVV Maastricht 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Roda made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 57% of the ball to Roda's 43%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.93 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.67 for Roda.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Roda?

MVV Maastricht 0-3 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 39%, draw 25%, Roda 36%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (MVV Maastricht), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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