FS Jelgava 2-3 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
3%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
24%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.7pp
35%
Away Win
41%
-6.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.7pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.08/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/2.02
+12% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
13.8 Crosses 23.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.92 xG 1.47
49% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
232 Passes 286
67% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
11.11.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.08.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
10.06.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
29.04.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
20.09.2020 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.07.2020 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
2-3
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.86 xG 1.24
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 10
233 Passes 220
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Tukums 2000 nicked a narrow win over FS Jelgava 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day FK Tukums 2000 made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 51% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 49%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.86 to 1.24 — the balance of chances actually favoured FS Jelgava.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FS Jelgava and 0.83 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000?

FS Jelgava 2-3 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 36%, draw 29%, FK Tukums 2000 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →