Chapecoense 1-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Mar 2026

Chapecoense
1 - 1 HT 1 - 1
Gremio
📅17/03/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2026

Chapecoense vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.9
Over
51%
1.85
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.69
No
45%
2.05
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.24
2-3
46%
1.75
4-5
23%
3.39
6+
6%
13.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.42
1/2 ✗
3%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
12%
6.37
X/2
14%
5.19
X/X
16%
4.59
2/1
3%
31.0
2/2
23%
3.21
2/X
5%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 3% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome. ★ This match carries Gold/Silver/Bronze value markets — free account to see them.

Chapecoense v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Chapecoense The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio The Market 45%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.46 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.29
1.45 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.12
Great Attack Strength Average
Weak Defense Strength Average
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
15 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3

Chapecoense vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Gremio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.80 xG 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
302 Passes 418
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.07.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
16.04.2022 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
21.11.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-3 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
10.08.2021 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
11.11.2019 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
06.08.2019 Gremio Gremio 3-3 HT 2-2 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1

Chapecoense 1-1 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1 - 1
AWAY Gremio
1.23 xG 0.72
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
223 Passes 521
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
15 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Chapecoense vs Gremio
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Chapecoense and Gremio shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

The preview numbers (33% / 27% / 40%) promised nothing between these sides, and the point apiece bears that out. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Chapecoense had 35% of the ball to Gremio's 65%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.23 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chapecoense and 1.50 for Gremio.

Chapecoense vs Gremio Result & Final Score

Chapecoense 1 - 1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Chapecoense vs Gremio Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 33%, draw 27%, Gremio 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gremio), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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