Bahia 2-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Apr 2024

Bahia
2-1 HT 1-1
Fluminense
📅17/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Fluminense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 31% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.88
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
14%
4.72
X/2
11%
6.95
X/X
12%
4.63
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
4.97
2/X
10%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Fluminense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.53/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.52
-9% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
276 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 83%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.7 Crosses 17.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bahia vs Fluminense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Fluminense
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.91 xG 1.37
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 Passes 370
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
05.12.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 2-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
31.08.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
04.02.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
11.10.2020 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 2-1 Fluminense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
2-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.08 xG 0.37
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
279 Passes 466
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia squeezed past Fluminense 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 40% of the ball to Fluminense's 60%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.08 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bahia and 1.00 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Fluminense?

Bahia 2-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bahia 44%, draw 28%, Fluminense 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →