Auda 1-0 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
26%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.5pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auda EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.63/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.52
+15% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
334 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 70%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
15.7 Crosses 21.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auda
5W-1D-0L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.49 xG 0.82
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
496 Passes 222
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
27.08.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-2 Auda Auda LET
16.07.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-4 HT 0-1 Auda Auda LETK
10.06.2023 Auda Auda 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
28.04.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-0 Auda Auda LET
12.11.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-1 HT 0-0 Auda Auda LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auda
1-0
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
2.53 xG 0.29
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 3
471 Passes 192
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Auda vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auda nicked a narrow win over BFC Daugavpils 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Auda as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Auda had 67% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 33%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.53 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auda's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auda had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Auda and 0.33 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?

Auda 1-0 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auda win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Auda 52%, draw 24%, BFC Daugavpils 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Auda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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