Chapecoense 2-1 Ferroviaria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Jun 2025

📅17/06/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.41
Over 2.5
33%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.29
No
62%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
15%
6.34
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
22%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.2pp
67%
Under 2.5
67%
-0.7pp
33%
Over 2.5
33%
+0.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.0pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferroviaria EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.16/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.18/1.16
-20% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
23.0 Crosses 8.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
2-1
AWAY Ferroviaria
0.84 xG 0.82
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 6
241 Passes 467
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Ferroviaria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense squeezed past Ferroviaria 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chapecoense as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chapecoense had 37% of the ball to Ferroviaria's 63%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.84 to 0.82.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Ferroviaria?

Chapecoense 2-1 Ferroviaria in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Ferroviaria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 42%, draw 31%, Ferroviaria 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chapecoense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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