Portland Hearts of Pine 3-1 Greenville Triumph — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 17 Jul 2025

📅17/07/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-7.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.4pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenville Triumph EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.33/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.51
+2% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.8 Crosses 17.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Hearts of Pine
3-1
AWAY Greenville Triumph
1.88 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
264 Passes 294
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Portland Hearts of Pine vs Greenville Triumph
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine got the better of Greenville Triumph 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Portland Hearts of Pine found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Portland Hearts of Pine had 48% of the ball to Greenville Triumph's 52%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.88 to 1.05.

What was the final score of Portland Hearts of Pine vs Greenville Triumph?

Portland Hearts of Pine 3-1 Greenville Triumph in the USA - USL League 1 on 17/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Greenville Triumph?

Before kick-off our model rated an Greenville Triumph win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Portland Hearts of Pine 34%, draw 29%, Greenville Triumph 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Greenville Triumph) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Greenville Triumph) ✓ BTTS Yes
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