Osasuna 1-1 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.33
No
62%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
39%
-0.9pp
62%
BTTS No
61%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.69/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.11
+1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +34%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
23.7 Crosses 17.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Leganes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.57 xG 1.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
224 Passes 292
64% Pass Accuracy 71%
9 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.06.2020 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
17.08.2019 Leganes Leganes 0-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
09.04.2017 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 1-1 Leganes Leganes İS1
21.11.2016 Leganes Leganes 2-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
14.02.2016 Leganes Leganes 2-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS2
12.09.2015 Osasuna Osasuna 2-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
1-1
AWAY Leganes
1.74 xG 0.98
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 Passes 193
76% Pass Accuracy 64%
28 Box Touches 8
37 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna and Leganes couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Osasuna at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Osasuna had 61% of the ball to Leganes's 39%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.74 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osasuna had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Osasuna and 1.17 for Leganes.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Leganes?

Osasuna 1-1 Leganes in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 46%, draw 28%, Leganes 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Osasuna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Osasuna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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