Caernarfon Town 1-2 Haverfordwest County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

Caernarfon Town
1-2 HT 0-0
Haverfordwest County
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

Caernarfon Town vs Haverfordwest County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.58
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.6pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caernarfon Town v Haverfordwest County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Haverfordwest County EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +1%
1.80/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.52
+30% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7

Caernarfon Town vs Haverfordwest County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Haverfordwest County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
26.08.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 1-1 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
25.03.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 2-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
11.02.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
17.09.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
13.08.2022 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 1-0 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Haverfordwest County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Haverfordwest County nicked a narrow win over Caernarfon Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Haverfordwest County found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.00 for Haverfordwest County.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Haverfordwest County?

Caernarfon Town 1-2 Haverfordwest County in the Wales - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Haverfordwest County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 39%, draw 26%, Haverfordwest County 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →