Al Nassr 5-0 Istiqlol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCŞL2, 17 Sep 2025

📅17/09/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
74%
1.16
Draw
11%
7.78
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.94
Over 2.5
63%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.53
No
52%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
8.94
2-3 Goals
42%
2.42
4-5 Goals
26%
2.22
6+ Goals
14%
3.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
5%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
74%
Home Win
82%
-8.3pp
11%
Draw
10%
+0.6pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+7.7pp
37%
Under 2.5
22%
+15.5pp
63%
Over 2.5
78%
-15.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
36%
+12.9pp
52%
BTTS No
64%
-12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Istiqlol EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / -5%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
454 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Istiqlol
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.77 xG 0.38
75% Ball Possession 25%
20 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
616 Passes 160
88% Pass Accuracy 68%
36 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2023 Istiqlol Istiqlol 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr AŞMP
02.10.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-1 HT 0-1 Istiqlol Istiqlol AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
5-0
AWAY Istiqlol
1.95 xG 0.21
76% Ball Possession 24%
16 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
603 Passes 128
88% Pass Accuracy 62%
33 Box Touches 5
10 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Istiqlol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr swept aside Istiqlol 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Nassr had 76% of the ball to Istiqlol's 24%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 1.95 to 0.21.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Al Nassr had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Al Nassr and 1.00 for Istiqlol.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Istiqlol?

Al Nassr 5-0 Istiqlol in the AFCŞL2 on 17/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Istiqlol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 74%, draw 11%, Istiqlol 15%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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