Napoli 3-0 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Super Cup, 18 Jan 2024

Napoli
3-0 HT 1-0
Fiorentina
📅18/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Super Cup – 2023/2024

Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.68
Over 2.5
54%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
4.27
6+ Goals
10%
21.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.27 — our 23% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.75
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
13%
5.28
X/2
9%
5.51
X/X
16%
4.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
31.5
2/2
17%
3.98
2/X
8%
13.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.5 — our 11% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
56%
-9.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
44%
+9.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Napoli v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Napoli vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.49 xG 1.07
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
426 Passes 437
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-3 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.05.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
28.08.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
10.04.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-3 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
13.01.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-5 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTK
03.10.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-2 HT 1-1 Napoli Napoli İTA

Napoli 3-0 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
3-0
AWAY Fiorentina
1.38 xG 1.45
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
274 Passes 461
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
8 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli ran out comfortable winners over Fiorentina 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Napoli made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Napoli had 40% of the ball to Fiorentina's 60%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 1.38 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Napoli and 2.00 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Fiorentina?

Napoli 3-0 Fiorentina in the Italy - Super Cup on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Napoli 38%, draw 29%, Fiorentina 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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