Brisbane Roar 1-3 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 18 Jan 2024

Brisbane Roar
1-3 HT 0-1
Macarthur
📅18/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.96
Over 2.5
57%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.39
No
44%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.61
2-3 Goals
38%
2.12
4-5 Goals
28%
2.45
6+ Goals
12%
4.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.63
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
17%
5.18
X/2
5%
7.32
X/X
8%
6.39
2/1
6%
20.2
2/2
20%
4.21
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-11.8pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -17%
1.70/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.99
-4% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 80%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
18.7 Crosses 21.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.1

Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Macarthur
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.36
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
427 Passes 364
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
05.03.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 3-2 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
08.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
15.04.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
13.02.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-1 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
09.04.2021 Macarthur Macarthur 1-2 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Brisbane Roar 1-3 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-3
AWAY Macarthur
1.64 xG 2.65
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 3
472 Passes 408
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
38 Box Touches 32
28 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur saw off Brisbane Roar 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 53% of the ball to Macarthur's 47%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 1.64 to 2.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.33 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur?

Brisbane Roar 1-3 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 48%, draw 22%, Macarthur 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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