Nova Iguaçu 2-1 Sampaio Correa RJ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Carioca 1, 18 Jan 2024

📅18/01/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
3%
2/2
17%
2/X
14%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nova Iguaçu EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampaio Correa RJ EU Bookmakers 42%
+14% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-22% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nova Iguaçu
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sampaio Correa RJ
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2021 Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 1-0 HT 1-0 Sampaio Correa RJ BRC1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nova Iguaçu
2-1
AWAY Sampaio Correa RJ
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 12
POST-MATCH Nova Iguaçu vs Sampaio Correa RJ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nova Iguaçu squeezed past Sampaio Correa RJ 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Nova Iguaçu made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nova Iguaçu had 45% of the ball to Sampaio Correa RJ's 55%, shots finished 12-17.

What was the final score of Nova Iguaçu vs Sampaio Correa RJ?

Nova Iguaçu 2-1 Sampaio Correa RJ in the Brazil - Carioca 1 on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nova Iguaçu vs Sampaio Correa RJ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sampaio Correa RJ win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nova Iguaçu 35%, draw 28%, Sampaio Correa RJ 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sampaio Correa RJ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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