Leon 1-2 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Jan 2024

Leon
1-2 HT 0-0
Tigres UANL
📅18/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Leon vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.87
6+ Goals
9%
17.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.52
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
13%
5.17
X/2
12%
5.77
X/X
12%
4.23
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
15%
4.11
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.15
Value flag · 2/X at 13.15 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.47/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.11
-13% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.1 Crosses 19.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Leon vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.15 xG 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
306 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.07.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
04.05.2023 Leon Leon 3-1 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL CON
01.05.2023 Leon Leon 3-0 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.04.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon CON
11.09.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
13.03.2022 Leon Leon 0-3 HT 0-2 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK

Leon 1-2 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-2
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.61 xG 1.41
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
329 Passes 458
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
30 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leon vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL edged past Leon 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Leon had 44% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 56%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.61 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leon and 1.17 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Leon vs Tigres UANL?

Leon 1-2 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Leon 41%, draw 27%, Tigres UANL 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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