ABD 3-1 Venezuela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.64
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.95
2-3 Goals
36%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.56
6+ Goals
11%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 34% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.13
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
12%
4.05
X/2
12%
9.93
X/X
19%
4.92
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
10%
8.36
2/X
7%
16.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
ABD win — 39%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
57%
-17.5pp
32%
Draw
24%
+8.3pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+9.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ABD EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezuela EU Bookmakers 22%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +17%
1.76/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.49
+12% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +58%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
22.0 Crosses 8.4
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ABD
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Venezuela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.05 xG 1.06
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
424 Passes 320
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 0
09.06.2019 ABD ABD 0-3 HT 0-3 Venezuela Venezuela HAZ
04.06.2017 ABD ABD 1-1 HT 0-1 Venezuela Venezuela HAZ
27.05.2006 ABD ABD 2-0 HT 1-0 Venezuela Venezuela HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ABD
3-1
AWAY Venezuela
2.35 xG 0.36
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
547 Passes 241
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH ABD vs Venezuela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ABD saw off Venezuela 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 28% — and on the day ABD made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ABD had 66% of the ball to Venezuela's 34%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.35 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for ABD and 1.33 for Venezuela.

What was the final score of ABD vs Venezuela?

ABD 3-1 Venezuela in the Friendlies on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ABD vs Venezuela?

Before kick-off our model rated a ABD win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split ABD 39%, draw 32%, Venezuela 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ABD) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ABD) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HAZ More Friendlies
18 Jan 2025
15:00 Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznan Analysis →