Calcio Certaldo 1-2 Sangiuliano City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
Over
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
39%
4-5
18%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Calcio Certaldo The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sangiuliano City The Market 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Calcio Certaldo vs Sangiuliano City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sangiuliano City edged past Calcio Certaldo 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sangiuliano City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Calcio Certaldo vs Sangiuliano City?

Calcio Certaldo 1-2 Sangiuliano City in the Italy - Serie D on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Calcio Certaldo vs Sangiuliano City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sangiuliano City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Calcio Certaldo 33%, draw 25%, Sangiuliano City 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sangiuliano City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sangiuliano City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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