18/02/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
2-1
Canicattì vs Castrovillari Calcio Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
Over Pick
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
36%
4-5
29%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
37%
Home Win
24%
29%
Draw
24%
34%
Away Win
52%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Canicattì v Castrovillari Calcio — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Canicattì
The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY
Castrovillari Calcio
The Market 56%
+55% /
+55%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+28% /
+28%
3.00/0.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.00/0.00
+146%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-18%
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
12
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
6
296 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
306 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Canicattì vs Castrovillari Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Canicattì beat Castrovillari Calcio 4-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Canicattì found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Canicattì vs Castrovillari Calcio?
Canicattì 4-2 Castrovillari Calcio in the Italy - Serie D on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Canicattì vs Castrovillari Calcio?
Before kick-off our model rated a Canicattì win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Canicattì 37%, draw 29%, Castrovillari Calcio 34%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Canicattì), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Canicattì)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
18 Feb 2024