Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Dynamo Dresden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.08
2-3 Goals
34%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.02
6+ Goals
16%
9.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.4
1/2
10%
22.05
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
11%
7.75
X/2
8%
4.39
X/X
14%
5.34
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
26%
2.46
2/X
5%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-4.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.3pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 53%
+13% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +21%
1.44/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/0.65
+26% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +72%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
243 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.23 xG 1.26
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
234 Passes 336
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
04.03.2023 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
28.08.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 HT 0-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
15.05.2022 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
12.12.2021 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 HT 0-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL2
08.03.2020 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 2-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-1
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Dynamo Dresden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue squeezed past Dynamo Dresden 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dynamo Dresden at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 47% of the ball to Dynamo Dresden's 53%, shots finished 12-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dynamo Dresden led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.17 for Dynamo Dresden.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Dynamo Dresden?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Dynamo Dresden in the Germany - 3rd Division on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Dynamo Dresden?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dynamo Dresden win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 29%, draw 27%, Dynamo Dresden 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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