Neftçi PFK 1-0 Zira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
73%
1.45
Over 2.5
27%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.29
No
69%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
50%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.5pp
34%
Draw
30%
+4.3pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.2pp
73%
Under 2.5
65%
+7.2pp
27%
Over 2.5
35%
-7.2pp
31%
BTTS Yes
40%
-8.7pp
69%
BTTS No
60%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Zira EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.06/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.12
-15% / +100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Zira
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
23.09.2023 Zira Zira 1-1 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
01.04.2023 Zira Zira 1-1 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
01.02.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
20.12.2022 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-1 HT 2-0 Zira Zira AZERK
29.10.2022 Zira Zira 0-3 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Zira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK squeezed past Zira 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 34% / 26% — and on the day Neftçi PFK made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (73%), no to both teams scoring (69%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Neftçi PFK and 0.50 for Zira.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Zira?

Neftçi PFK 1-0 Zira in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Zira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 40%, draw 34%, Zira 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
18 Feb 2024
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