Rio Branco ES 1-0 Vitoria ES — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
Over Pick
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
50%
4-5
16%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
31%
+8.3pp
25%
Draw
31%
-6.0pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Branco ES The Market 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria ES The Market 43%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.62/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.27
+31% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Branco ES
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Vitoria ES
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2023 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 0-1 HT 0-0 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES BRCAP
19.02.2022 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 1-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRCAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Branco ES
1-0
AWAY Vitoria ES
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Rio Branco ES vs Vitoria ES
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Branco ES nicked a narrow win over Vitoria ES 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Rio Branco ES found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Rio Branco ES had 50% of the ball to Vitoria ES's 50%, shots finished 17-20.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rio Branco ES had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rio Branco ES and 0.50 for Vitoria ES.

What was the final score of Rio Branco ES vs Vitoria ES?

Rio Branco ES 1-0 Vitoria ES in the Brazil - Capixaba on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Branco ES vs Vitoria ES?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Branco ES win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rio Branco ES 39%, draw 25%, Vitoria ES 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rio Branco ES) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rio Branco ES) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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