Matonense 1-2 EC Sao Bernardo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A3, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
36%
3.11
Away
25%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
Over
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
61%
No
39%
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
26%
4-5
35%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
22%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.5pp
36%
Draw
29%
+6.9pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matonense The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY EC Sao Bernardo The Market 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matonense
1-2
AWAY EC Sao Bernardo
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 13
POST-MATCH Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

EC Sao Bernardo edged past Matonense 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 36% / 25%) promised a tight game; EC Sao Bernardo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Matonense had 44% of the ball to EC Sao Bernardo's 56%, shots finished 7-15.

What was the final score of Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo?

Matonense 1-2 EC Sao Bernardo in the Brazil - Paulista A3 on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matonense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Matonense 39%, draw 36%, EC Sao Bernardo 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matonense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matonense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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