18/02/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
0-1
Le Messager Ngozi vs Bumamuru Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
Over 2.5
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
12%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
31%
33%
Draw
31%
40%
Away Win
39%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Le Messager Ngozi v Bumamuru — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Le Messager Ngozi
EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bumamuru
EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
48%
Ball Possession
52%
12
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
4
280 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
345 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Le Messager Ngozi vs Bumamuru
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Le Messager Ngozi got the better of Bumamuru 2-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 28% / 33% / 40% — and on the day Le Messager Ngozi made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
What was the final score of Le Messager Ngozi vs Bumamuru?
Le Messager Ngozi 2-0 Bumamuru in the Burundi - League A on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Le Messager Ngozi vs Bumamuru?
Before kick-off our model rated an Bumamuru win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Le Messager Ngozi 28%, draw 33%, Bumamuru 40%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bumamuru) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Bumamuru)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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BUR
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18 Feb 2024