Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 FC Flora Tallinn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+2.1pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0W-1D-5L
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
28.07.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
10.06.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-5 HT 1-1 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
16.04.2023 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 4-0 HT 4-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
09.10.2022 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-7 HT 0-3 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
20.08.2022 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 3-1 HT 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0-3
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Flora Tallinn ran out comfortable winners over Parnu JK Vaprus 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Parnu JK Vaprus at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 41% of the ball to FC Flora Tallinn's 59%, shots finished 9-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 3.50 for FC Flora Tallinn.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 FC Flora Tallinn in the Friendlies on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 56%, draw 22%, FC Flora Tallinn 22%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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