18/02/2024
·
13:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Mathare United vs Gusii Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
59%
No
41%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
40%
4-5
24%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
11%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
26%
Home Win
34%
30%
Draw
26%
45%
Away Win
41%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mathare United v Gusii — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Mathare United
The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY
Gusii
The Market 45%
+5% /
+5%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-51% /
-51%
0.66/0.34
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.00/2.47
-42%
/
+150%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-23%
/
-61%
49%
Ball Possession
51%
12
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
327 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
347 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Mathare United vs Gusii Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Mathare United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Gusii
2.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
7
Corners
5
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Mathare United vs Gusii
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Mathare United swept aside Gusii 4-0.
Our pre-match lean was Gusii at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Mathare United vs Gusii?
Mathare United 4-0 Gusii in the Kenya - Super League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mathare United vs Gusii?
Before kick-off our model rated an Gusii win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 26%, draw 30%, Gusii 45%. The final score 4-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.
✗ Match Result (Gusii)
✗ BTTS Yes
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