Mura 3-0 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 18 Feb 2024

Mura
3-0 HT 0-2
Maribor
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 26% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
25%
+7.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 54%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.32/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.98
+32% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Maribor
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Mura Mura 0-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
07.10.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
02.05.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 2-1 Mura Mura SLVN
05.03.2023 Mura Mura 2-1 HT 2-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
06.11.2022 Maribor Maribor 5-1 HT 3-1 Mura Mura SLVN
28.08.2022 Mura Mura 0-1 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
3-0
AWAY Maribor
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mura vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mura ran out comfortable winners over Maribor 3-0. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Maribor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mura had 40% of the ball to Maribor's 60%, shots finished 6-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mura and 2.17 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Mura vs Maribor?

Mura 3-0 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mura 33%, draw 24%, Maribor 43%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Maribor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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SLVN More Slovenia - 1st Division
18 Feb 2024
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