Atlanta United 2-0 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 18 Mar 2024

Atlanta United
2-0 HT 1-0
Orlando City
📅18/03/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Atlanta United vs Orlando City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.66
2-3 Goals
44%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
11%
4.34
X/2
8%
9.05
X/X
12%
5.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.05
2/2
10%
6.19
2/X
7%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.05 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v Orlando City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +31%
2.03/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.43
+30% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
414 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.7 Crosses 14.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atlanta United vs Orlando City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Orlando City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.25 xG 1.04
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 Passes 329
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.07.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 1-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
28.05.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 1-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
15.09.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 0-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
17.07.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
11.09.2021 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-0 HT 2-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
31.07.2021 Orlando City Orlando City 3-2 HT 1-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Atlanta United 2-0 Orlando City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
2-0
AWAY Orlando City
0.86 xG 0.47
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
342 Passes 467
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United saw off Orlando City 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atlanta United as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atlanta United had 43% of the ball to Orlando City's 57%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.86 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atlanta United and 1.17 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Orlando City?

Atlanta United 2-0 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 18/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 50%, draw 26%, Orlando City 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlanta United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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