River Plate 3-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 18 Mar 2024

📅18/03/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.42
Draw
30%
4.49
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
2.21
Over 2.5
39%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.32
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
19%
2.97
6+ Goals
8%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.32 — our 31% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.95
X/1
13%
3.57
X/2
7%
14.9
X/X
14%
6.75
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
9%
11.6
2/X
7%
19.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
67%
-17.5pp
30%
Draw
20%
+10.5pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
41%
+19.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
59%
-19.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.0pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 16%
-12% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.91/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.68
+15% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -1%
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
419 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 66%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
23.6 Crosses 16.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.09 xG 0.70
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
453 Passes 186
79% Pass Accuracy 64%
32 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 HT 1-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
14.04.2023 River Plate River Plate 3-0 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
22.07.2022 River Plate River Plate 1-0 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
14.03.2022 River Plate River Plate 4-0 HT 2-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
23.08.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 HT 1-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
28.09.2019 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
3-1
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.97 xG 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
458 Passes 288
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH River Plate vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate got the better of Gimnasia La Plata 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had River Plate as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, River Plate had 59% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 41%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 1.97 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for River Plate and 0.33 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of River Plate vs Gimnasia La Plata?

River Plate 3-1 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 18/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split River Plate 49%, draw 30%, Gimnasia La Plata 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (River Plate) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (River Plate) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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