Bayern München (K) 0-2 Lyon (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 18 Mar 2025

📅18/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.04
Draw
18%
3.64
Away
63%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.18
Over 2.5
62%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.13
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
35%
2.81
6+ Goals
10%
8.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.81 — our 35% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
3%
X/1
6%
X/2
26%
X/X
9%
2/1
3%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Lyon (K) win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
21%
-1.8pp
18%
Draw
24%
-6.0pp
63%
Away Win
55%
+7.8pp
38%
Under 2.5
42%
-4.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
58%
+4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern München (K) EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon (K) EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +102%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.0
Crosses 34.0
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern München (K)
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lyon (K)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.30 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
320 Passes 379
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.08.2020 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 2-1 HT 1-0 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) ŞMP-K
16.08.2015 Bayern München (K) Bayern München (K) 3-1 HT 1-0 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern München (K)
0-2
AWAY Lyon (K)
0.82 xG 2.68
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 6
320 Passes 408
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 41
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bayern München (K) vs Lyon (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon (K) saw off Bayern München (K) 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lyon (K) as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayern München (K) had 45% of the ball to Lyon (K)'s 55%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 0.82 to 2.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayern München (K) and 1.50 for Lyon (K).

What was the final score of Bayern München (K) vs Lyon (K)?

Bayern München (K) 0-2 Lyon (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 18/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern München (K) vs Lyon (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Bayern München (K) 20%, draw 18%, Lyon (K) 63%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon (K)) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP-K More Champions League - Women's
18 Mar 2025
20:45 Real Madrid (K) vs Arsenal (K) Analysis →