Nacional Asuncion 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
53%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
27%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.9pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.3pp
52%
Away Win
54%
-1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 58%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.14/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/0.86
+30% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Libertad
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-3 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad PAR
08.07.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
19.02.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 1-2 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad PAR
24.10.2022 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
21.08.2022 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 0-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
1-1
AWAY Libertad
23% Ball Possession 77%
8 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion and Libertad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 23% of the ball to Libertad's 77%, shots finished 8-21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 1.83 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Nacional Asuncion 1-1 Libertad in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 26%, draw 21%, Libertad 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Libertad), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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